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State health officer discusses COVID-19 trends

| March 31, 2020 11:16 PM

OLYMPIA — Limited data seems to suggest that COVID-19 activity is increasing in Washington, but it does not seem to be increasing exponentially, according to Kathy Lofy, state health officer with the Department of Health.

Lofy said on Tuesday that this indication is based off of real-time data of the number of people being hospitalized for symptoms “consistent” with the symptoms associated with coronavirus.

She said this data should be taken with a grain of salt, as public health officials and researchers are still trying to determine its accuracy. Lofy explained that these numbers are likely not as accurate as data measured from lab-confirmed cases of coronavirus.

Lofy said the data may suggest that mitigation efforts such as Gov. Jay Inslee’s “stay home, stay healthy” order may be having an impact on the spread of the virus.

Currently, the Department of Health’s reporting system for the number of confirmed cases and deaths in the state is on a two-day delay. Lofy said this is because the website was not built to handle such high quantities of reports, but the delay will not affect the response to the virus.

Lofy said that limits to testing capacity have also limited the amount of data that can be collected on the spread of the virus, but that capacity has been increasing.

She said that large one-day jumps in confirmed cases have likely been due to increases in the amount of testing that can be done in one day.

“The more people we test, the higher our numbers will be,” she explained.

However, the frequency of negative to positive test results can be used to get a read on the spread of the virus.

In the middle of March, COVID-19 test results showed positive for the virus in 6 to 7 percent, she said. In the last few days, the results are positive for closer to 9 percent of the people tested.

Lofy said this is indicative of increased COVID-19 activity.

Researchers at the University of Washington are using data measuring the number of deaths per day to try to model the potential trend that the state is headed toward. Lofy said the UW model estimated the peak of the viral outbreak to happen April 19. If accurate, that is when she says hospitals will experience the highest surge of sick patients in need of treatment.

According to Lofy, the COVID-19 virus is present in every part of the state. She emphasized the importance of staying home, as public gatherings could cause a large increase in the number of infections.